According to information released by the Ministry of Commerce, affected by severe weather such as cold and heavy fog, as well as cyclical and seasonal factors, the prices of edible agricultural products have risen significantly since the beginning of this year. In January, the national consumer price level rose by 2% year-on-year, of which food prices rose 2.9%.

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, the prices of edible agricultural products in 36 large and medium-sized cities nationwide have rebounded. The average price of the 18 kinds of vegetables monitored rose by 16.7% from the previous month and rose by 0.9% year-on-year; the wholesale prices of fresh pork, beef, lamb, and eggs rose by 5%, 2.9%, 2.2%, and 1.4% respectively.

Ma Wenfeng, an analyst at Eastern Iger Agricultural Consulting Co., told the Economic Information Daily that according to the company’s comprehensive food price index for urban foods, the food price increase started at the end of October last year. It was the longest food price increase since early 2010. A rising cycle.

Yu Qiumei, a senior statistician of the Urban Statistics Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, believes that from the historical data, the food price fluctuations in January and February are relatively large, with obvious seasonality. With the implementation of various policies and measures, as well as the elimination of holiday factors and the improvement of weather conditions, the rising trend of prices for food, especially live agricultural products, will tend to stabilize.

According to the data released by the Ministry of Agriculture on the 20th, the prices of domestic vegetables and eggs dropped significantly after the Spring Festival. The average price of 28 kinds of vegetables on February 18 was 4.52 yuan per kilogram, which was 6.8% lower than before the holiday, and the price of eggs was lower than before the holiday. Declined by 6.5%. In addition, the price of pork and fruit also fell after the holiday.

Tan Xiaoxiao, an economic analyst at Xinhua News Agency, believes that the production and supply of vegetables, fruits, and aquatic products are affected by natural disasters. The price has risen sharply. Although the production has recovered after the weather turned better, the price has fallen, but the increase rate is obviously greater than the rate of correction. The overall price trend is rising. Vegetable prices are likely to be higher in the first and fourth quarters and lower in the middle of the year, but the overall price level will be higher than in 2012.

Features

Meat and egg prices or "going together"

Compared with the "pig inflation" in 2011, pork prices have been sluggish during the past year, and prices of meat and eggs have also risen. As the price of pigs has entered a rising cycle this year, the prices of livestock and poultry products such as pork, beef, mutton, and eggs may have the tendency to "go further and advance together."

Qin Fu, director of the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, interviewed by an economic reference reporter said that the scale and organization of meat and egg production is relatively low, and the impact of diseases and diseases has caused prices to fluctuate. This year, meat and egg products will be dominated by rising prices, which will become an important factor affecting the overall price of agricultural products.

As for the price trend of meat and eggs products, Qinfu expects that the supply and demand gap between beef and mutton will remain evident in the short term, and the trend of continued price increase may continue. With many retail investors exiting pig breeding due to losses, pork prices will enter a recovery cycle this year; last year Since the emergence of “Rockets” in July, the overall price of eggs has rebounded, but there is still a difference of about 15% from the previous year's high, and there is room for further increases in egg prices.

At present, the price of pigs has continued to fall. This has also laid "foreshadowing" for the rebound of pork prices in the latter period. The monitoring data of Sogou.com showed that the average price of live pigs in the country has dropped to about 7.2 yuan/kg, and that in the Northeast China has fallen below 7 yuan/kg. The feed price is still oscillating at a high level, which drastically reduces the profitability of pigs to below the 50 yuan/head mark and is almost equal to the cost line. If this rate drops, the national hog market will fully lose money within two weeks.

Feng Yonghui, chief analyst of Sogou.com, told reporters that after a sharp drop in the price of pigs, it is expected that it will bottom out in June and July. If the farmers have sustained deep losses, the large number of out-of-stock sows will be eliminated, and the rebound of pig prices in the later period will be greater.

In addition, domestic beef and mutton prices have risen steadily since 2010, and continue to set new highs. As of February 8, the wholesale prices of fresh beef and fresh mutton monitored by the Ministry of Commerce have all exceeded 50 yuan/kg, which is an increase of 35.8% and 16.8% respectively compared to the beginning of 2012.

Tan Xiaoxiao believes that the increase in beef and mutton prices in recent years is mainly driven by the sharp increase in demand. Due to changes in feeding methods, aquaculture costs, a relatively long production cycle, and a low reproductive rate, coupled with the current food safety situation, The more people are starting to consume beef and mutton, the price of beef and mutton will still rise in the future.

influences

The key factor in determining prices

The new monetary policy implementation report issued by the central bank recently stated that the price situation is relatively stable, but uncertainties are also increasing. Prices may be affected by supply shocks in the short term, and in the medium to long term they are mainly determined by aggregate demand, output gaps, and structural changes in the economy.